I chanced upon this short Manual of Ideas video earlier in the morning, in which Brad Hathaway of Far View Capital Management was interviewed. While it is a short excerpt, I found what he said to be true and very succinctly captures what has worked for me in terms of having simple thesis generating profitable outcomes in most cases historically.
He spoke about how if you are not able to put all the pluses and minuses of the investment thesis in less than a page, then you don’t fully understand the attractiveness of the opportunity. That is exactly what I have observed over time personally and as such, have shifted the structure of my writeups to a single page.
In a way, the approach acts as a check on my conviction and thesis. If I can’t put what I think about an opportunity within a page, alarm bells in my head start to go off and self doubts start to set in. That is more or less a signal to myself that I need a rethink the validity of the opportunity. The video is certainly a good reminder for me to stick to the knitting.